New Zealand Economic Update: September 2026

Consistent with RaboResearch’s forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.75% in early September. The RBNZ noted that inflation had increased to 4.1% in the year to June - well above the 1-3% target range – but that this was largely due to higher imported fuel prices and once this was stripped-out inflation actually fell to 2.9%. The Monetary Policy Statement makes the point that “most measures of core inflation... remain within the target range.”