France: Le Pen would bring fiscal uncertainty and friction with EU

Polls indicate that Le Pen could win the race for the French presidency. Subsequent parliamentary elections could extend uncertainty through spring. It’s unlikely that any next president can gather a majority in parliament, so further fiscal slippage due to compromises is likely. The risk that France misses budget targets is higher if Le Pen gets to appoint a prime minister. RN’s fiscal plans may not be as irresponsible as once feared, but their commitment to budget responsibility remains unclear. A fragmented parliament would not stop Le Pen from taking a more confrontational approach to Brussels, stifling European decision making.