The European Banking Authority (EBA) initiated, coordinated and conducted the 2025 EU-wide stress test exercise in cooperation with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and has published the results. Rabobank took part in this exercise which assesses the resilience of European banks.
Rabobank notes the announcements made today by the EBA on the EU-wide stress test and acknowledges the outcomes of this exercise. The 2025 EU-wide stress test does not contain a pass or fail threshold but its results serve as input to the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP). The results will assist competent authorities in assessing Rabobank’s ability to meet applicable prudential requirements under stressed scenarios.
The adverse stress test scenario was set by the ESRB in close cooperation with the ECB and covers a three-year time horizon (2025-2027). The adverse scenario was based on aggravated geopolitical tensions including trade barriers combined with resurgent supply side inflation leading to a drastic and persistent reduction in global trade. These shocks would have detrimental effects on EU growth and employment leading to severe GDP loss.
The stress test was carried out by applying a static balance sheet assumption as of December 2024, and therefore does not consider future business strategies and management actions nor any future financial performance. It is also not a forecast of Rabobank’s profits. The EBA 2025 scenario features a more severe cumulative GDP decline compared to the EBA 2023 stress test, and lacks a recovery in the third year. The 2025 stress test also incorporates the new EU banking package, with banks providing restated CRR 3 figures.
In the baseline scenario Rabobank’s fully loaded common equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1) would increase to 21.65% as per FYE 2027. Under the adverse scenario the CET1 ratio would see a total depletion of 2,52% and end at 14.67% as per FYE 2027. In both scenarios Rabobank’s CET1 ratio remains well above the regulatory requirements at the end of the forecast period (including the SREP requirement for 2025 of 9.9% and the MDA trigger of 11.30% applicable on 30 June 2025). Furthermore, Rabobank’s CET1 ratio would stay comfortably above its CET1 ratio ambition of >14%. Rabobank will announce its financial results for the first six months of 2025, including the CET1 ratio, on 7 August 2025.
The full results for Rabobank are available on the EBA website: https://www.eba.europa.eu/risk-and-data-analysis/risk-analysis/eu-wide-stress-testing.
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