Brazilian coffee monthly update: June 2026

In June, both the arabica and robusta (conilon) harvests advanced significantly across Brazil’s main producing regions. However, rainfall combined with lower temperatures and elevated humidity levels affected field operations in several areas, slowing harvesting activities and the drying process. In some regions, unfavorable weather led to quality concerns in coffee lots being dried on patios. Farmers equipped with dryers were able to partly mitigate these impacts, while those relying exclusively on sun drying faced greater challenges related to excess moisture. Weather conditions are expected to stabilize in the coming days, supporting the continuation and acceleration of harvest activities and improving post-harvest processing conditions.

In foreign trade, Brazil exported 3.08 million bags of coffee in May, representing a 3.7% YOY increase, although volumes were 1.1% lower than in April 2026. Arabica exports totaled 2.12 million bags, down 5.9% compared with April 2026 and 11.9% vs. May 2025. In contrast, robusta exports reached 602,000 bags, increasing 21.1% MOM and a remarkable 195.4% YOY. The strong performance of robusta exports partially offset the decline in arabica shipments, underscoring robusta’s growing contribution to the country's overall coffee export portfolio.

In the futures market, particularly in the arabica “C” contract, prices experienced significant upward movements throughout June, reflecting a highly volatile trading environment. A combination of factors, including historically low global inventories, the retention of previous-crop stocks by well-capitalized producers, delays in the arrival of the new crop due to rainfall, investment fund activity, and ongoing weather-related uncertainties, drove the recovery. After undergoing a sharp correction in May when prices declined by approximately 12% from USD 3.02/lb to USD 2.65, arabica posted a strong rebound in June, gaining roughly 19% and rising from USD 2.60/lb to USD 3.11. Most these gains were concentrated in the second half of the month. Robusta displayed a more stable performance. Following a modest decline of 2.6% in May from USD 3.568/metric ton to USD 3.476, prices resumed an upward trend in June, advancing 11.8% to reach USD 3.845. Overall, while arabica prices proved more sensitive to market dynamics and recorded a stronger recovery, robusta maintained a more balanced performance, ending the period with firm prices and a favorable outlook supported by sustained demand and strong market fundamentals.

In June, all analyzed locations recorded precipitation levels above the average of the past 15 years. The most significant deviations were observed in Patrocínio (Minas Gerais), which accumulated 72mm of rainfall compared to a historical average of 17mm, in Três Pontas (Minas Gerais), with 60mm vs. a historical average of 35mm, in Franca (São Paulo), with 64mm compared to an average of 30mm, and in Guaxupé (Minas Gerais), where 22mm of rainfall was recorded against a historical average of 9.4mm.