Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: May 2026

11 June 2026 17:30 RaboResearch

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Rabobank

    In May, coffee harvesting progressed across Brazil, supported by favorable weather conditions in both arabica- and conilon-producing regions. Yields so far remain within the normal range for this period, with no significant issues reported. In the coming days, the forecast indicates continued stable weather, which should help maintain the strong pace of harvesting. In foreign trade, Brazil exported approximately 3.12m 60kg bags of coffee in April 2026, a volume slightly higher than that recorded in the same month of 2025 (+0.64%) and 1.6% above March 2026. Despite this marginal increase, exports totaled 11.6m bags in the first quarter, a 16% decline compared to the same period last year. However, with the progress of the new crop harvest, the trend is for sales to intensify, with the gradual release of stocks, as prolonged holding may result in product devaluation, since it starts to be priced as old-crop coffee. In April, arabica and conilon coffee markets showed slight appreciation, with arabica prices rising month-on-month by approximately 1% and conilon by about 1.25%, reflecting a relatively balanced market environment, with short-term price support. May, however, saw a clear divergence between the two: Arabica experienced a sharp drop of 10.9%, indicating a more pronounced deterioration, while conilon posted only a slight decline of 0.4%, remaining practically stable. This behavior highlights the greater resilience of the conilon market. Arabica prices continue to face stronger pressure, especially due to expectations of increased supply associated with the 2026/27 crop. Scattered rainfall was recorded in some cities in May, but the volumes were not sufficient to disrupt the progress of the harvest. In Guaxupé and Patrocínio, accumulated May rainfall totaled 21mm and 17.7mm, respectively, below the five-year averages of 47mm and 30.4mm. In Alta Floresta d’Oeste and Linhares, May’s accumulated rainfall reached 15mm and 30.9mm, also below the respective historical averages of 59.1mm and 57.1mm. In some areas of southern Minas Gerais, such as Boa Esperança and Campo do Meio, isolated hail events affected certain coffee farms. However, these impacts were localized and did not compromise overall production in the region. This phenomenon is common in the coffee-producing belt at this time of year, but it generally causes limited damage.

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