Global poultry quarterly Q3 2026: Strong growth continues, but tighter discipline is critical as oversupply pressures build

The global poultry industry continues to operate under strong growth conditions, with production expanding above 5% in many major markets in Q1 2026, year-on-year. RaboResearch has again increased its global market growth outlook for 2026 from 2.5%-3% to 3%-3.5%, driven by robust growth in markets such as China, the EU, South Africa, the Philippines, and Brazil. The industry continues to benefit from a favorable price position, particularly relative to beef, supporting an ongoing shift toward chicken consumption.

However, weaker economic conditions and increasingly price-sensitive consumers may start to weigh on chicken demand, especially in lower-income markets in southern Asia and parts of Africa.

An increasing number of countries are implementing food security strategies, accelerating a shift from global trade toward local production (“local-to-local”). This trend is visible across parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. China is a clear example, having transitioned from the world’s largest chicken importer to a significant net exporter – marking a key turning point in global poultry markets.

Despite this longer-term shift toward localization, global poultry trade remains strong, with 3.5% YOY growth in Q1 2026 following several weaker years. This is notable given ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including the Iran war. Trade flows to the Gulf have remained resilient, supported by key exporters and transit trade hubs like Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.

The interim US-Iran agreement, which extends the ceasefire and supports the reopening of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced near-term risks to energy and shipping markets and could support a recovery in trade flows of poultry and feed ingredients.

Global meat and poultry trade could face significant disruption from the potential removal of Brazilian products from EU imports. If implemented, this would likely reshape trade flows, pushing EU prices higher and Brazilian prices lower and increasing EU imports from alternative suppliers such as Thailand and China.

Companies will need to sharpen their focus on operational excellence as volatility increases and market conditions become more challenging. Key risk factors include geopolitical uncertainty, potential El Niño impacts, and a tight breeding stock market. Under these more uncertain and volatile conditions, disciplined and restrained supply growth strategies will be essential to maintain market balance.