Update
New Zealand agribusiness monthly August 2026: Good prices, but plenty to watch
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: New Zealand production for June 2026 – the first month of the 2026/27 season – has continued a record-setting trend. Momentum is likely to continue over the season, unless El Niño takes hold in early summer in key dairying regions.
Beef: Beef farmgate prices continue to strengthen as supply returns to more typical seasonal levels. Strong June export volumes and evolving China demand dynamics reinforce New Zealand’s position in an increasingly supply-constrained global market.
Sheep: Sheepmeat markets remain firmly supported by record average export values, strong farmgate pricing, and tightening global supply, with confidence building as the industry approaches the new season.
Farm inputs: Fertiliser markets strengthened in July, supported by logistics disruptions, tight supply, and rising raw material costs, while agrochemical inflation continued to add to farm input cost increases.
Interest rate and FX: As we foreshadowed last month, the RBNZ raised the OCR to 2.50% in July. We project further rate hikes in September, December, and February. The New Zealand dollar has rallied sharply on higher interest rate expectations.
Oil and freight: The breakdown of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran sent oil prices sharply higher in July. The decision by the Houthis in Yemen to join the conflict raises risks of even tighter oil supply.