Update
New Zealand agribusiness monthly November 2026: Summer on the horizon
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: Dairy commodity prices found support in October for most of the complex, although butterfat prices remained weak. Powder prices are doing the heavy lifting and this has translated into a lift in Fonterra’s farmgate milk price forecast for 2026/27.
Beef: Strong global demand continues to support historically high New Zealand beef prices, although increasing cattle supply points to seasonal easing. US and China demand may be critical as summer supply builds.
Sheepmeat: Strong export returns and tight supply support sheepmeat prices entering 2026/27. China’s improving price signals are encouraging, but new-season lamb arrivals will test how firmly farmgate returns hold over the coming months.
Farm inputs: Global urea prices strengthened through October amid renewed Indian demand and Middle Eastern supply uncertainty, while phosphate markets remained elevated but stable. Potash has the softest outlook, with growing global supply and weak demand.
Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ shocked markets in October by keeping the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.75% despite rising inflation pressures and signs of continued recovery in economic activity. RaboResearch continues to project 25bp increases in both December and February.
Oil and freight: In October, oil prices rose to the highest levels since April and could be poised to rise further as the US and its allies contemplate renewed strikes against Iran.