Australian 2024/25 winter crop forecast: Production and prices

Australian production for the 2024/25 season is expected to rise to 47.05m tonnes, a marginal increase of 1.1% or 0.5m tonnes YOY. The positive start and good rainfall during the growing season in Queensland, northern New South Wales, and some areas in Western Australia largely counterbalanced shortfalls in Victoria and South Australia’s precipitation. The small uptick compared to 2023/24 will come mainly from wheat and, to a lesser extent, from pulses and oats. Canola and barley production may be lower year-on-year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frosts that struck many crops at a critical period. As expected, canola production is poised to be smaller year-on-year, not only due to a smaller cropping area but also to weather setbacks.