The effects of Trump’s tariff troubles on EU cheese and butter

In April 2025, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on trading partners across the globe. Analysis and historical evidence suggest that this additional 10% US import tariff on EU cheese could lead to a 10% to 15% decline in US imports of EU cheeses. We anticipate that increased domestic production in the US will counterbalance this drop in imports. European cheese exporters are likely to shift their focus to emerging markets in East Asia and the Middle East.

The effect on butter and anhydrous milk fat exports is expected to be more moderate, as the US remains a net importer of butterfat. An additional 10% tariff on these products is unlikely to cause major disruptions. Heightened import tariffs have had minimal impact on EU milk fat exports to the US in the past.

Despite the seemingly limited overall effect, it's important to recognize that EUR 1.9bn in cheese and butter sales is at stake. This poses a significant challenge for companies with substantial investments in the US market.