Time to tap the brakes?

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy rate board will announce its first policy rate decision for 2026 on the 3rd of February. Having cut the cash rate three times in 2025 (February, May, August), the RBA is under pressure to tighten monetary policy following a lift in inflation from mid last year and signs of stabilisation in the labour market. RBA-dated OIS currently implies a 69% chance of a 25bp hike in February, with a second 25bp hike fully priced for the September RBA meeting.