Australian beef seasonal outlook 2026: Strong markets holding but don’t rush the gate

Successive favourable seasonal conditions have allowed the Australian cattle industry to build inventory levels to what we believe to be the next cyclical peak. This is generating record cattle slaughter and production volumes in 2026. Despite these record volumes a strong global market is supporting record export prices and in turn historically high cattle prices, particularly for finished cattle. RaboResearch believes this strong export market will continue through 2026 and into 2027, driven largely by the import demand from the US market. However, inflationary pressures of the Iran war and the impact on consumer sentiment will need to be watched. The strong export market is expected to provide support for the Australian domestic cattle market, and we believe prices should hold around levels seen through Q1. A deterioration of seasonal conditions would be the largest risk in the system given the high cattle inventory as it would force producers to sell cattle rapidly. Slaughter volumes are already at historically high levels, adding an additional 10% to these levels as we have seen in previous drought conditions would test the capacity of the system.