Research
World Dairy Map 2026: Cheese leads growth as supply power shifts
Global dairy trade continues to expand along a steady long-term trajectory of 2% per year, but underlying dynamics are shifting. Cheese leads growth, but shifting demand – including weaker Chinese imports – is redirecting flows toward emerging export markets. At the same time, stronger supply growth in the US and Argentina is intensifying competition as Europe faces mounting constraints on milk production.
Global dairy trade continues to expand along a long‑term growth path of around 2% per year. The EU remains the largest exporter, but its global share is gradually declining as the US, Argentina, and Uruguay strengthen their positions, as can be seen when comparing our 2023 and 2026 maps.
China is still the largest importer, but its declining purchases are shifting exporters’ hopes toward markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Brazil.
Among dairy products, cheese stands out as the strongest growth engine, while milk powders show weaker momentum. Butter surged in 2025 due to a sharp rise in US exports, and whey is becoming increasingly valuable amid strong demand for protein-based applications.
Looking ahead, global dairy trade is expected to keep growing steadily, slightly accelerating its pace, with the US and Argentina best positioned to drive future supply expansion as Europe faces tighter production constraints.
Our new World Dairy Map 2026 visualizes the latest global dairy trade flows, offering a snapshot of the current patterns behind these shifting trends.
Download the map
> Click here to download the World Dairy Map 2026
Poster versions of the World Dairy Map 2026 are exclusively available to Rabobank clients. To receive one, please contact your relationship manager.