Global avocado update 2026: Structural supply growth and climate-driven variability reshape global avocado markets

El Niño is expected to heighten uneven supply risks for the 2026/27 avocado season, affecting yields, fruit size, and quality in key regions rather than causing a uniform global shortfall. Meanwhile, global avocado exports are steadily expanding. The combination of rising structural supply and climate-driven variability means market dynamics and prices will be increasingly volatile, shaped by the timing of weather impacts relative to growing seasons. Geopolitical turmoil presents another destabilizing factor, causing trade disruptions and cost price increases.

In the North American market, record Mexican exports, together with a solid Californian crop in 2025/26, have pushed US avocado supply to historic highs, marking a sharp turnaround from the prior season and driving a normalization of prices, a narrowing of size-based price spreads, and continued elevated (but volatile) premiums for organic fruit. Looking ahead, we think strong supply, high price sensitivity, and growing policy uncertainty around the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will shape the US market.

In South America, avocado exports surpassed 1 million metric tons for the first time in 2025, led by Peru, Colombia, and a recovering Chile. Although the outlook calls for further growth, El Niño-related weather risks in the coming seasons introduce uncertainty about yields and quality. Overall, the region is poised for continued structural growth in supply, albeit with rising climate-driven variability and potential margin pressures.

EU-27 imports continue to climb, having increased nearly fivefold since 2010, and RaboResearch availability scenarios show further opportunities for market growth. However, volumes are highly concentrated in the summer months, causing midyear market congestion and downward pressure on prices. In contrast, winter periods see tighter supply and price recovery, underscoring the need for better year-round supply distribution to stabilize the market.

Australia and New Zealand's avocado sector is maturing amid expanding output and export diversification. Australia’s production is rebounding to strong levels and setting export records, while New Zealand is rapidly diversifying sales toward Asian markets (and reducing reliance on Australia). The region’s growth remains positive but increasingly depends on continued efforts to build export markets and improve supply chain efficiency.