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The ECB saw no reason to raise rates today, but policymakers hinted at a September rate hike. This remains our base case. We still believe that 2.50% marks the end of this hiking cycle, but developments in the Middle East increase the likelihood that the ECB is forced to implement additional tightening. If they do, that also raises the odds policymakers will have to reverse course next year, amidst weaker economic activity.
Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more
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