Rabobank: China’s Animal Protein Outlook to 2020: Growth in Demand, Supply and Trade
China will continue to dominate the world meat production and trade over the coming years, although its animal protein industry is entering a period of transition, according to Rabobank’s China Animal Protein Outlook to 2020. Demand growth is slowing, and the industry is changing in response—and it needs to. Growth in production and consumption offers opportunities for China’s producers and for global traders.
As China's economy slows, animal protein demand growth is following suit, but additional demand each year is still big in absolute terms (see Figure 1). According to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst Animal Protein: “On the supply side, pork production will be reshaped, while poultry production faces uncertainty, and beef production will likely drop. As a consequence, meat imports are expected to increase steadily, further cementing China's role as the world's most significant meat importer.”
Some highlights from the report
Pork production will be reshaped
In the coming years, additional production will mainly occur in the north and north-east, while in the south—where rivers and lakes are located—further development of pork production will be restricted.
Poultry production faces uncertainty
The breeding stock for white-feathered birds depends on imports, making the whole supply chain vulnerable to any trading changes. We expect whitebird production to drop in 2017, due to the low level of breeding herd and trade restrictions.
Beef production will likely drop first and then grow
In 2017, beef production is expected to drop. Thereafter, the industry will grow at 1% to 2% each year, until 2020. However, beef demand is expected to outpace domestic production. This will lead to growing imports in the coming years. By 2020, imports are expected to make up more than 20% of the total supply.
China will cement its role as the number one global meat importer
Meat imports are expected to increase steadily in the coming years—across beef, pork, and poultry—reinforcing China’s position as the world’s most important meat trader (see Figure 2). As total meat imports to mainland China reach over 6m tonnes in 2020, China will become—if it is not already—the main focus for meat exporters everywhere.
Two important questions arise from this increasing focus. The first is how China will look to influence global meat trade, given its dominant role. The second is how animal protein companies will look to establish a sustainable supply chain to meet China’s evolving market needs.
In the next few weeks, this outlook will be followed by a series of 2-page reports, individually focusing on global regions and the particular impact these developments will have.