Global beef quarterly Q3 2025

Global cattle prices have all continued their rise through Q2 with Northern Hemisphere countries continuing to stand out at record prices. Led by contractions in Europe (-5% YOY), New Zealand (-17% YOY) and the US (-5% YOY) beef production continued to decline into Q2. Total beef production declined in 1H, down 1% YOY. Australia (+11% YOY) and China (+7% YOY) saw increases in Q2 compared to Q2 2024. The latest round of tariffs included an additional 40% on the already existing 10% and 26.4% on Brazilian beef imports. Brazil had supplied a record volume of beef (336,000mt) into the US in 1H 2025. RaboResearch believes this additional tariff will have a material impact on the trade between Brazil and the US. The question remains if the volumes imported by the US in 1H have been stored and will flow into the US market over the coming months, or if there will be a shortage in the US market that in turn drives up demand from other suppliers. Furthermore, what impact does reduced exports have on the Brazil market. RaboResearch analysts explore these questions in this quarter's feature article.