Brazilian coffee monthly update: May 2025

In April, Brazil exported 3.1 million 60kg bags of coffee, a 28% decline year-on-year. Cumulative exports in 2025 have reached 13.8 million bags, down 16% from the same period last year. Aligned with earlier forecasts, this slowdown was driven by the offseason and historically low stock levels – consequences of disappointing past harvests and record 2024 exports. The 2024/25 crop year (Jul–Jun) is expected to close at 45 million to 46 million bags.

The barter ratio remains favorable. As of May, 1.05 bags of coffee are needed to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20) – a drop of 8% from last month and 47% from a year ago. Despite rising potash prices, falling urea prices have supported this improvement. According to our farm inputs team, tighter potassium supply may lead to future price increases.

In Brazil, arabica prices rose 4% month-on-month in May, recovering from April’s dip. In contrast, Brazilian conilon prices fell 2% month-on-month, pressured by expectations of a record conilon crop and a weaker arabica harvest. RaboResearch estimates the 2025/26 harvest at 62.8 million bags, down 6.4% from the previous cycle. Arabica output is projected to fall 13.6% to 38.1 million bags, while conilon is expected to reach a record 24.7 million bags (+7.3%).

It’s worth noting that in mid-September 2024 Brazilian conilon was more expensive than arabica coffee, by around BRL 25/bag (60kg). Today, arabica is approximately BRL 900/bag more expensive. This is a strong incentive for the local industry and roasters to return to using more conilon in domestic blends. Despite a sharp rise in retail prices, supermarket coffee sales increased by 3% to 4% in Q1 2025, according to retail sources.

April rains supported final bean development, especially for arabica. Conilon harvesting began in April and is accelerating, while the arabica harvest is underway and will intensify in the coming weeks. The Brazilian market enters the 2025/26 season facing tight supply, low inventories, and resilient deman