Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: April 2026

12 May 2026 17:58 RaboResearch

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

Rabobank

    In March 2026, the survey of the Brazilian coffee crop for the 2026/27 cycle was completed, indicating a strong recovery in production, particularly for Arabica coffee. Total output is estimated at 73.3m bags (60kg) of coffee, comprising 48.7m bags of Arabica and 24.6m bags of conilon (robusta). The projected growth reflects improved weather conditions in the main producing regions and points to a more balanced Brazilian supply outlook in the upcoming cycle, following periods of production constraints. Also in March 2026, Brazil exported 3.04m bags of coffee, a 7.8% YOY decline, despite a 15% increase compared to February. In the first quarter, cumulative exports reached 8.5m bags, down 21% from the previous year, reflecting a more cautious stance by producers and elevated differentials that limit the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee. The international market remains highly volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. This environment puts upward pressure on energy prices, increasing the cost of agricultural inputs and fertilizers – of which Brazil imports approximately 90% – and raising production, harvesting, and logistics costs. As a result, exchange rate volatility has increased, market risks have intensified, and price fixing has become more difficult, further raising the operational and financial burden on producers in this crop year. The terms of trade deteriorated in April. Arabica coffee showed a deterioration of approximately 6.7% compared to March, when 4.66 bags of arabica coffee were needed to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20 05 20). In April, this requirement increased to 4.97 bags, indicating a loss in the producer’s purchasing power. On a year-on-year basis, the situation is also unfavorable: in April 2025, only 2.25 bags were needed for the same purchase. With regard to prices, March was marked by sharp fluctuations. Arabica coffee ended the month up 3%, supported by tight supply conditions and low global inventories. Robusta, despite reaching highs during the month, closed 9% lower due to profit-taking movements. In April, arabica prices remained firm, posting an additional 2% gain, while robusta recorded a 3% recovery. Although more defensive and range-bound, the market remains at historically high levels. From a climatic perspective, April saw reduced rainfall in key producing regions, supporting harvest progress. Looking ahead, lower precipitation, worsening water deficits across the coffee belt, and potential El Niño risks are expected.

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