Update
North American agribusiness review October 2025
An outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities for the North American market, along with the developments to watch in the coming months.
Food inflation continues to outpace overall inflation, and restaurants are feeling the pressure, with nine straight quarters of declining traffic. Some chains and menus are bucking the trend with growth in both visits and spending.
US retail beef prices continue to rise, with the USDA's all-fresh beef price reaching a record USD 9.18/lb in August. US cattle slaughter from January through September is down 1.5m head, a 7% drop compared to the same period last year.
Pork prices remain well ahead of year-ago levels and the five-year average, with cutout values of USD 109/cwt currently averaging 15% above last year.
Chicken production continues to outpace year-ago levels, and chicken prices are down sharply in recent weeks, with boneless breast meat prices now 27% below year-ago levels.
Amid rising retail beef and pork prices, and falling chicken prices, crop producers are also under pressure: corn stakeholders are pushing for year-round E15 use to boost ethanol demand, while soybean surpluses are increasing reliance on proposed biodiesel mandates to absorb excess supply.
August milk production increased 3.2% versus the prior year, and at 9.52m cows, the herd size is now the largest since the mid-1990s. July total dairy exports were up 7% YOY, and cheese is on track for a record year.