Research
Where Has All the Cocoa Gone?
Yesterday, the ICCO released their annual stock survey of European warehouses as of the end of September 2017, showing a yearly decline in stocks of 51,000 tonnes.
This is in sharp contrast to the ICCO estimate (generally accepted by the industry and most cocoa analysts) that there was a large surplus (335,000 tonnes) in the 2016/17 season. Until the release of this survey, there was no reason to question a large global surplus, especially given a known and certain increase in US licensed warehouse stocks of 106,000 tonnes (to 291,000 tonnes) during that period.
We believe cocoa could reach USD 2,200/tonne during the current quarter.
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