Update

North America containerboard quarterly: Q3 2025

2 September 2025 12:42 RaboResearch

The Q3 2025 containerboard quarterly outlines RaboResearch's forecasts for containerboard demand, production, and linerboard prices.

Intro

Although GDP may dip slightly into negative territory in Q3 2025, the US appears to have avoided a recession triggered by a full-scale trade war. A milder tariff regime may emerge as the new normal, with pulp and paper products among those affected. In response, producers should take a cautious approach. They must manage capacity and costs carefully, reassess sourcing strategies to reduce exposure to tariffed imports, and strengthen domestic supply chains to improve resilience in a shifting trade landscape.

In the Q3 2025 edition of the containerboard forecast, we expect:

    Containerboard demand to recover at a modest compound annual growth rate of 0.53% through Q2 2027. Production to recover at a CAGR of 2.82%, with inventory replenishment happening across mills and converters. Linerboard prices to remain flat in the next 12 months, followed by a projected USD 40/metric ton increase in late 2026 and another USD 50/metric ton increase in 2027.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more