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Australia agribusiness August 2025: Seasonal conditions on the improve

6 August 2025 16:13 RaboResearch
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Australia’s key commodities highlights and economic influences for this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Intro

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

    Wheat and barley: Wheat prices softened in July as favourable harvests in the Northern Hemisphere eased supply concerns. Trade deals and record US corn forecasts added pressure to the competitiveness of Australia's feed and milling grain. Canola: Strong global supply and stable canola harvests in Europe and Canada are keeping oilseed prices steady. Moving forward, geopolitical developments could reshape trade flows and influence price direction. Beef: Cattle prices continue to edge higher with cull cow prices leading the charge supported by US demand for lean trim. This demand could increase in the coming months due to the additional tariffs imposed on Brazil, which would provide ongoing support for Australian cattle prices. Sheepmeat: Lamb availability remains uncertain. After reaching record levels, RaboResearch believes finished lamb prices have reached their seasonal peak. With slaughter numbers contracting, prices will ease as processors adjust their kill volumes. Wool: Wool prices found good support month-on-month amid weakness of the Australian dollar. However, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was disappointing. Cotton: US futures continue to track lower as concerns around US production ease and the Brazilian harvest is firmly underway. Recent weakness in the Australian dollar is likely shielding Australian cash prices from some of the downward pressure. Farm inputs: Fertiliser prices continued to track higher in July, with urea leading the way (+11% MOM). Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, global supply and demand remains tight, particularly in the urea and phosphate markets. Dairy: Commodity prices were mostly weaker across the dairy complex through July. Fundamentals have shifted gear slightly, with milk supply growth accelerating across major production regions, supported by high milk prices, affordable feed, and a bounce back from disease outbreaks Consumer foods: Australian food inflation moderated in Q2. Food prices rose 3% YOY, compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. This rate remains above long-term average. While retail sales bounced in June, the foodservice channel was sluggish. Interest rate and FX: The RBA held the cash rate unchanged in July, but a cut in August is likely after a benign inflation report. The US has confirmed that Australia will continue to face the 10% minimum reciprocal tariff rate. Oil and freight: Oil prices lifted for a third consecutive month in July, as US president Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian exports (including oil) should Russian president Vladimir Putin fail to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump has given Putin less than two weeks to agree to terms.

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Australia agribusiness monthly August 2025

Previous editions

Australia agribusiness monthly July 2025
Australia agribusiness monthly June 2025
Australia agribusiness monthly - May 2025
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The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more