Australia agribusiness April 2026: Fuel and fertiliser pressures

Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Wheat and barley: Grain markets have stabilised after recent volatility, with global benchmarks and Australian prices lifting on geopolitical risk and tightening local balances. While global supplies remain ample, rising input costs and regional production constraints point to firmer prices and upside potential later in the year.

Canola: Oilseed prices have strengthened due to the Middle East conflict, supported by firm, rising energy markets and strong crush margins. Canola offers a better risk‑reward profile than cereals, which may lead to an increase in cropping area despite rising inputs prices and availability headwinds.

Beef: Cattle prices remain firm. Buoyed by favourable rain through large parts of Queensland in March, the market remains firm despite some areas selling higher numbers due to dry conditions. While markets are expected to remain firm, the cost and availability of transport will need to be managed in the coming months.

Sheepmeat: Lamb and mutton prices have continued to hold firm despite disruptions to the large export market of the Middle East. Domestic supply and processor procurement pressure appear to still be the driving forces in the market and we believe these pressures will continue for the coming month.

Wool: Wool prices performed relatively well in March, with EMI prices rising 3.2%. However, demand slowed down towards the end of the month. The market will be watching to see whether sentiment can pick back up again in early April.

Cotton: Cotton prices bounced 6.5% higher MOM, with the jump in crude oil prices likely supporting cotton markets. Looking forward, the market will focus on US plantings, with the USDA set to release its planting intentions report at the end of the month.

Farm inputs: For fertilisers, attention has once again turned to urea prices, which have risen by around 50% over the past four weeks. An immediate supply shock to urea exports, combined with the secondary impact of higher natural gas prices, is exerting a prolonged upward influence on pricing.

Sugar: Sugar prices have risen on oil‑driven volatility, with tighter global oil and sugar supply key. Brazilian ethanol decisions and Indian exports will shape near‑term price directions.

Dairy: Commodity milk values have bounced, which provides better support for farmgate values moving forward. Global dairy markets remain well supplied with steady production growth across key export regions for now, which may limit upside in the commodity basket.

Consumer foods: Australian consumer confidence set to plunge, reshaping discretionary spending, while good inflation remains stuck at 3% even before any impacts from the global energy supply shock start to hit the consumer basket.

Interest rates and FX: The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.10% in March and is expected to hike rates further as war-related supply chain interruptions put sharp upward pressure on inflation. The AUD has been resilient so far but has fallen below USD 0.6900 in recent days as interest rate expectations have risen elsewhere.

Oil and freight: Diesel prices have soared since the outbreak of war in the Middle East and supply is being tested in many areas. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be critical to restore supply and bring down prices.