New Zealand agribusiness April 2025: Autumn is beefing up

Dairy: Global milk supply is rising in most export regions, with New Zealand's production 2.8% higher YOY for the season-to-date. North Island heat may slow growth rates in the final quarter of the season.

Beef: Farmgate prices for bull beef, prime, and manufacturing cow are 35% to 45% above the five-year average. The strong beef outlook boosts the store market, a challenge for traders.

Sheepmeat: Lamb prices hold above NZD 8.00/kg cwt, with average export values strong. Mutton exports values to China have improved while UK and EU demand is boosting lamb exports.

Farm inputs: Urea prices declined an eye watering 12.8% in New Zealand dollar terms month-over-month, as Indian demand failed to meet market expectations. The question is, where next for markets given uncertainty regarding Chinese export policy and global demand?

Interest rates and FX: RaboResearch expects the RBNZ to cut the OCR by a further 0.25ppts in April. We expect the New Zealand dollar to remain little changed over the next six months before rising towards 0.5900 against the US dollar in 12 months’ time.

Oil and freight: Oil prices are set to face pressure from increased OPEC+ supply in April. The futures curve points to sub-USD 70/bbl prices by year-end, and RaboResearch sees prices averaging USD 71/bbl in Q2.

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New Zealand agribusiness monthly April 2025

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New Zealand agribusiness monthly March 2025

New Zealand agribusiness Monthly December 2024

New Zealand agribusiness Monthly November 2024

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New Zealand agribusiness April 2025: Autumn is beefing up

Stefan Vogel

Ben Picton

Angus Gidley-Baird

Emma Higgins

Jen Corkran

Michael Harvey

Anna Drake

Pia Piggott

Vítor Caçula Pistóia

Paul Joules

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