New Zealand agribusiness April 2026: A watch on fuel, fertiliser, and freight

Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Dairy: Oceania dairy prices have lifted, led by sharp SMP gains, supporting NZ milk prices, despite record milk flows globally and a well‑supplied market, with US production growth still dominating fundamentals.

Beef: NZ beef farmgate prices remain resilient, underpinned by strong US trim demand and slow domestic cattle flows. As seasonal supply lifts and global uncertainty persists, some margin pressure may begin to emerge.

Sheepmeat: NZ sheepmeat prices remain well supported, underpinned by diversified export demand and historically strong values, though rising seasonal supply and global uncertainty may bring some gradual softening.

Farm inputs: For fertilisers, attention has once again turned to urea prices, which have risen by around 50% over the past four weeks. An immediate supply shock to urea exports, combined with the secondary impact of higher natural gas prices, is exerting a prolonged upward influence on pricing.

Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ is likely to keep the OCR unchanged in April as it ‘looks through’ the initial inflation impacts of the war in the Middle East, but the markets are now anticipating earlier hikes to the OCR than previously. The NZD fell by more than 2 cents against the US dollar in March as war weighed on risk sentiment.

Oil and freight: Diesel prices have soared since the outbreak of war in the Middle East and supply is being tested in many areas. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be critical to restore supply and bring down prices.