New Zealand agribusiness December 2025: A sizzling summer of hot prices

Dairy: Plenty of milk for the market has pressured farmgate milk prices. Commodity price weakness is likely to be a feature in the near-term.

Beef: Firm beef prices may be getting close to their seasonal peak, reflecting strong global demand and tight early supply. Export values are strong, and on-farm conditions may now be the key influence of supply dynamics.

Sheepmeat: Sheepmeat prices remain elevated, supported by strong export demand and tight early supply. EU markets for lamb are a key driver, with farmgate returns likely at or near their seasonal peak with supply expected to ramp up in the coming weeks.

Farm inputs: It was a mixed month for fertiliser prices, with phosphate prices down around 5% MOM, while urea rose 2%. Although RaboResearch expects urea prices to ease over the next six months, short-term downside potential may be limited by strong buying activity from India.

Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ cut the OCR by 0.25ppts in November but sent a strong signal that it may be finished for the cycle. The New Zealand dollar was buoyed by signs that there may be no more cuts to come and is expected to rise further against the US dollar.

Oil and freight: Oil prices continued to track lower in November and are likely to fall further early next year. Diesel prices are being supported by a lack of refining capacity and a consequently tight supply-demand picture.