New Zealand agribusiness March 2026: Stakes rising with an eye on costs

Dairy: Milk volumes remain strong across most exporting regions, supported by cheap feed. Recent New Zealand milk price forecast lifts are an anomaly within the global milk price environment.

Beef: Sluggish slaughter and abundant feed continue to shape near-term market conditions. Farmgate prices remain firm, supported by US manufacturing demand and tight domestic supply.

Sheepmeat: Seasonal supply increases in lamb and currency strength may place some pressure on schedules in the coming weeks. However, sheepmeat prices remain well supported for later in the season, owing to steady export demand.

Consumer foods: Food inflation remains elevated but should continue to trend lower. Red meat is becoming harder for households to afford. Consumer confidence starts 2026 on a stronger footing.

Farm inputs: For fertilisers, all focus is on the US and Israel-Iran war. The wider Middle-East region represents approximately 45% of global urea exports and is heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. Should disruptions continue, urea prices could rise sharply.

Interest rates and FX: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged in February and indicated that they will be cautious about raising rates this year. The New Zealand dollar has fallen recently, but RaboResearch remains bullish on its prospects over the next 12 months.

Oil and freight: Oil and freight markets are very likely to be driven primarily by the war in Iran over the course of March. Oil prices have lifted, but the outlook remains contingent on whether tankers will continue to move through the Strait of Hormuz.