New Zealand agribusiness November 2025: Spring throws parting weather shots

Dairy: Global milk production signals are clear: There is plenty of milk for the market. As such, commodity price weakness is likely to be a feature in the near term.

Beef: Beef farmgate prices remain firm across all cohorts of cattle. This continues to be driven by both low local supply and very firm export demand from the US.

Sheepmeat: Lamb prices near NZD 11/kg cwt, with mutton firming at NZD 6/kg. Tight supply and strong export demand are driving record highs, and there may be more potential upside before the summer lamb supply peak.

Farm inputs: RaboResearch sees downside risk for urea and phosphate prices due to poor global affordability. Current market dynamics suggest a potential pullback in usage, as buyers remain unwilling to absorb current high prices.

Interest rates and FX: The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps in October and is likely to deliver a further 25bp cut in November to take the rate down to 2.25%.

Oil and freight: Oil prices were pressured lower in October by signs of ample global supply, despite recent sanctions targeting Russia's major oil firms providing some support to prices in the middle of the month.