ECB preview: How close to a pause?

Several policymakers believe it may soon be time to take a pause, but we do not believe that they will block another rate cut next week. However, as monetary policy becomes less restrictive, and the economic outlook again becomes more clouded, a growing group of rate setters may call for a pause soon. The new staff projections, meanwhile, may offer relatively little insight in the ECB’s next move. They risk being outdated the moment they are published, and US tariffs could shorten the shelf life of these forecasts substantially.