Research

A Tariff-Induced Recession?

11 April 2025 15:06 RaboResearch
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Based on simulations with a number of scenarios for how the trade war is going to develop, we now think that the probability of a US recession is higher than 50%.

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Marketing communication / Non-Independent Research. This publication is issued by Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A., registered in Amsterdam, and/or any one or more of its affiliates and related bodies corporate (jointly and individually: “Rabobank”). Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. is authorised and regulated by De Nederlandsche Bank and the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Read more