Australian beef seasonal outlook 2025

Successive favourable seasons (noting areas of Victoria and southeast South Australia had dry conditions in 2024) have allowed Australian cattle numbers to build. The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57m tonnes) for Australian beef production. RaboResearch expects 2025 will continue to see high numbers of cattle turned off, and with continuing high carcass weights, production volumes are expected to remain high and close to the 2024 record. Fortunately for Australia, other major beef-producing countries are expected to see a decline in production in 2025. This creates demand for imports and reduces competition in Australian export markets, supporting demand for Australian beef.

The outlook of high production balanced by global demand leads to our expectation that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively steady through the course of 2025 with some potential upside. However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions. Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.