Global Daily: "I'm just here for the cotton candy"

Naturally, the market didn’t Fink about a new globalisation yesterday. Rather, it fought on weaker US data: ADP employment 37K vs. 114K expected, ISM services 49 vs. 52. That apparently means “rate cuts!” again even as the ISM prices paid were 68.7 vs. 65.1. Yet the Financial Times editor Martin Wolf today argues what I did a year ago via my 2025 financial markets outlook theme, ‘The Year of Living Dangerously’: ‘Interest rates are normal, the world is not’. In short, we could easily face a global recessionary shock, or an inflationary one, or both at once – and markets will have to adjust. One can shrug this all off ‘because cotton candy’; but perhaps one can only do so because of where it’s located.