Global avocado update 2025

The global avocado market continues to grow, with a market value now exceeding USD 20 billion. Export volumes are expanding rapidly, driven by increased production and diversification of exporting countries. By the end of the decade, about 30 countries will be exporting more than 5,000 metric tons per year. Amid this rise of new suppliers, seasonal oversupply in some markets is a concern that will require continued demand creation and marketing strategies.

The US market, the world’s largest importer, continued to show strong demand in 2024/25. Prices reached record highs given lower shipments from Mexico, where heat and drought limited fruit development. The 2025/26 season is expected to be back to more normal volumes from Mexico, while California is harvesting the largest crop since 2020. Potential trade policy changes may limit the success of US efforts to diversify sourcing origins in Latin America.

South America could surpass 1 million metric tons of exports in 2025/26 led by Peru and followed by Colombia and Chile. The three countries are increasing their production and exports, but only Chile has an important domestic market. Other countries in South America may provide opportunities for demand growth.

The European market continues to present strong demand, which has sustained high prices throughout 2024 and the first half of 2025. However, high volumes from Peru are affecting wholesale prices in Europe in the 2025 summer period. Marketing efforts are needed to absorb peak volumes, especially both Peru and African countries are strongly expanding export volumes to Europe.

Following a dip in production during 2024/25, Australian avocado production is expected to recover in the 2025/26 season. For the longer term, we expect growth in planted areas to level off. Following a recovery in production in 2024, further growth is expected in 2025 New Zealand avocado production.