Chocolate retail prices hit predicted highs – end of surge in sight

Chocolate prices have surged, driven by a cocoa market in crisis. In September 2024, RaboResearch warned that soaring cocoa futures would push retail prices sharply higher – a forecast that has since materialized.

Today, chocolate retail prices sit more than 50% above 2021 levels, and the widening gap between branded and private label products is accelerating a clear shift in consumer behavior. Retailers are expanding value ranges, while manufacturers adjust pack sizes and recipes to manage costs and protect margins.

With cocoa futures easing, the steepest price hikes appear to be behind us. Chocolate prices are expected to moderate gradually over the next two years, yet they will remain well above pre-crisis levels. For consumers, this means some relief from the sharpest shocks but not a return to the old normal. For manufacturers, it signals a market that remains cost-intensive and volatile, requiring ongoing adaptation.