Bank of England Preview: Not clear-cut

We expect the Bank of England to hold rates at 4.00% on November 6, as the MPC’s shift to true data dependence makes each meeting a live one. While the labour market continues to cool, it’s not enough to warrant an immediate cut. Inflation surprised slightly to the downside, but underlying pressures remain sticky. Reconciling labour softness with slow disinflation suggests a downward rate path, though the MPC’s centrists will likely await clearer disinflation signals before cutting.