New Zealand Economic Update: January 2026

- The New Zealand economy is in a growth upswing - The household sector is taking over from the agricultural sector as a driver of growth - Consumer confidence is rising, but remains below long-run historical averages - RaboResearch projects that the next move in the OCR is more likely to be up than down, but we don't expect a rate hike until late in 2026 - Longer-term market interest rates have been rising since October as the market anticipates the end of the RBNZ rate cutting cycle