New Zealand agribusiness outlook 2026: Keeping one move ahead

The global chessboard shifted again in 2025. Not through one dramatic move, but through a steady tightening of trade blocs, industrial policies, and geopolitical manoeuvring that reset the rules of play. As we enter 2026, the pieces are still moving, and the pace hasn't slowed. Major economies are making assertive “opening moves” on trade, technology, and security, turning commerce into a tool of leverage more than cooperation. For New Zealand, this isn't distant noise. It is the environment in which our farmers, processors, and exporters must operate in addition to the usual supply and demand fundamentals.

Tempo at the centre: politics, macro settings, and cashflow
In chess, controlling the centre early shapes the entire match. For New Zealand agribusiness in 2026, the “centre” is politics and the money flows tied to it.

New Zealand's election will likely see land, water, and climate become key campaign topics. Offshore, the US heads into a highstakes political cycle of its own, with policy signalling, tariff talk, and bureaucratic muscle likely to keep markets on edge. The specifics will shift but the tempo is set, and volatility is part of the rhythm.

With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) easing cycle largely complete, interest rate cuts are expected to pause, with a possible firming later in the year. This offers shortterm breathing room on debt servicing, but also keeps currency movements frontofmind. The NZD/USD exchange rate is expected to swing between the high0.50s and low0.60s, meaning export receipts may move as much with offshore politics as with economic data. Looking further ahead, the future role of the US dollar is worth watching.

China is settling more commodity purchases in renminbi, and stablecoins are creeping into international commodity trade. Exporters need not react yet, but they do need to stay aware.

Unexpected angles: The knight's move
Energy markets reset lower through late 2025, with Brent crude sliding into the high50s and offering relief for freight and fuel budgets. Howver, as every chess player knows, the knight can strike from unexpected angles. Shipping routes remain vulnerable to disruption, and there is fast upside risk for refined products. Onfarm efficiency upgrades, diversified freight paths, and disciplined cost management remain essential to avoid being “forked” by sudden swings in fuel or transport conditions.

Pressure on the diagonals: The bishop pair
Fertiliser affordability will likely remain challenging this year. Urea was highly volatile through 2025, and hopes of early2026 stability have faded. Geopolitical risks remain the biggest driver, with unrest in Iran posing direct risk given its approximately 10% share of global urea exports. Any escalation would push prices higher, and markets can move quickly. Strong earlyseason buying in the US, alongside sustained Indian demand, is likely to keep wholesale prices supported before easing later in the year. On the other diagonal, grains and oilseeds remain subdued due to large global corn stocks and expanded South American plantings. Lower feed costs may help intensive competitors, but they also highlight the natural cost advantage of New Zealand's pasturebased systems.

The queen's reach: Weather for an island nation
Climate remains the strongest piece on the board, shaping every part of New Zealand's food and fibre sector. A wet La Niña summer delivered plenty of feed, complemented by strong imported feed use in 2025. Now those sodden northern conditions are fading as ENSO drifts toward neutral: too late for parts of the north still recovering from earlier flooding.

The weather remains the queen powerful, farreaching, and hard to predict or control and it will keep testing planning, timing, and feed budgets all year.

Protein markets: Converting position into advantage
Redmeat prices look set to lead the pack in 2026. Beef supplies remain tight, with cattle numbers across key Northern Hemisphere markets sitting at multiyear lows. This global shortage is maintaining historically firm cattle prices, despite periodic fluctuations as herds gradually rebuild. Sheepmeat also enters 2026 on a stronger footing, supported by easing Australian supply and steady demand from the UK, EU, and US. Dairy, however, is more tactical. After late2025 weakness, early2026 trading shows a tentative recovery, but global oversupply amid softer demand could bring some caution to 2026/27 opening milk price forecasts.

The finishing strategy: Staying on the front foot
Chess rewards players who think three moves ahead. For New Zealand agribusiness in 2026, this could mean focusing on the wider forces shaping the board not just daytoday price movements. With the right positioning, New Zealand farmers and exporters can turn a shifting board into tomorrow's opportunity.