California pistachio market outlook to 2030: Entering a more balanced growth phase

The California pistachio industry is entering a more mature phase, characterized by slowing acreage growth and more balanced market fundamentals. Bearing acreage is expected to plateau by the end of the decade as new plantings decelerate. At the same time, water-use restrictions constraints imposed by California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) are increasingly limiting expansion. Production should continue to grow, but at a more measured pace. Average on‑year volumes will likely remain below 2bn pounds, and cumulative output over the next five seasons should track below prior industry expectations, with off-years serving as a stabilizing force for market balance.

Shipment performance remains central to sustaining balance. The ability to ship early, diversify export destinations, and maintain market access has become increasingly critical to efficiently clearing larger crops. Recent shipment strength has been driven by firmer overseas demand, the growing popularity of pistachios and pistachio‑based products, reduced international competition, and supportive currency dynamics.

Against this backdrop, the price outlook has improved. While volatility remains inherent to the pistachio market, more restrained production growth and manageable inventory levels suggest prices are increasingly supported across the cycle, with downside risk less severe than previously feared.

Mixed signals in the US economy continue to shape demand dynamics for packaged goods. Lower‑income consumers remain price‑constrained, while higher‑income households retain purchasing power and are increasingly trading up into premium, protein‑ and fiber‑rich foods. These choices align with health‑oriented consumption trends. The rising adoption of weight‑loss medicines, such as glucagon‑like peptide‑1 agonists (GLP‑1s), is also influencing purchasing behavior. Together these shifts could support demand for pistachios and other nuts.