Tariff mania and the EU-US trade deal

The Supreme Court’s rejection of IEEPA‑based tariffs has shifted most EU goods back into the Section 122 regime with a 10% surcharge, possibly rising to 15%. Key EU sectors (pharma, aircraft parts, semiconductor equipment) stay exempt, but tariff effects vary widely by country and industry. Section 122 is temporary, and the US may escalate via new 232 or 301 measures; fresh 301 investigations are already underway. The EU‑US trade deal is stalled, and tariffs are set to remain despite uncertainty. Multiple scenarios are possible, but for now we expect near-term macro impact to remain contained.