Research

Conflict in the Middle East: Impact on global food and agribusiness

12 March 2026 15:00 RaboResearch

Disruptions in the Middle East are driving volatility in energy, inputs, and trade, with far reaching consequences for global food systems.

Intro

The current conflict in the Middle East is sending far-reaching shock waves through global food and agribusiness sectors. The disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is rapidly driving up oil, gas, and refined product prices, with effects cascading through fuel, power, logistics, and industrial input costs. In addition, the Middle East is a key hub for fertilizers, petrochemical feedstocks, food and agricultural trade, and global logistics. The effects are felt throughout the entire value chain, including consumers.

Overall, the conflict introduces a multilayered global risk environment, with the potential for both short-term volatility and longer-lasting structural impacts on supply chains, pricing, and margins across the global food and agribusiness system.

Disclaimer

The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any transactions described and/or commercial ideas contained in this document. This document is for information purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, invitation or recommendation. Read more