Research

More acres in a world of lower prices: 2026 US grain & oilseed baseline outlook

16 March 2026 11:10 RaboResearch

Our baseline model projects average US grain and oilseed farmgate prices will normalize well below 2021-2022 peaks yet above the low average prices of the 2010s.

Intro

    RaboResearch anticipates more US grain and oilseed acres in a world of lower prices over the next decade. US farm safety net and crop insurance programs keep base acres in production even when margins are thin or negative. Therefore, US planted acreage does not decline with prices, and a large base of planted acres remains in place longer than would be expected. While domestic disappearance is growing moderately, trend yields keep supply growing faster than domestic disappearance. Consequently, the US depends on exports to balance supply and demand. This is particularly true for corn, whereas soybean exports are flat due to strong crush demand and robust competition from Brazil. Our baseline model projects average farmgate prices will normalize well below 2021-2022 peaks yet above the low average prices of the 2010s. Soybean prices will gradually decline throughout the 10-year outlook period to USD 9.00/bu. In the first five years of the outlook, corn prices will gravitate toward USD 4.00/bu. Excluding global wheat production shortfalls, US average farmgate wheat prices over the outlook period will near USD 5.00/bu.

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