Monthly Outlook: War and Peace

If ‘a week is a long time in politics’ then a month is an eternity in geopolitics. Since February 28, the Iran war has become the fulcrum around which global markets, the global economy, and the geopolitical architecture all now conflate. For now, we are sticking to our geopolitical base-case scenario of the war being over in 2-3 weeks on largely US terms, then a slow return to normal for energy… but not for geopolitics: the world won’t look the same on the other side of this whether the US wins or loses.