From trade disputes to packaging laws – the trends shaping the US strawberry industry in 2026

The US strawberry industry enters 2026 with expanding supply and resilient demand, but also with growing exposure to trade disputes, regulatory change, and shifting consumer behavior.

At the core of these dynamics, US strawberry supply and demand continue to expand, with recent annual production above 2.6bn pounds and per capita availability near 8 pounds. California remains the dominant supplier, supported by Mexico’s early‑season volumes, while stable exports, growing imports, and resilient consumption reinforce the crop’s importance in the US fruit sector.

Our 2026 weekly strawberry arrival and price projections show familiar US seasonal supply patterns, with volatility concentrated during the spring transition and more stable conditions mid‑season. Our projections show the range of plausible supply and price outcomes – from tighter supplies and firmer prices under adverse conditions to softer markets when volumes exceed expectations – reinforcing the central role of seasonal and regional planting dynamics.

Against this backdrop, the winter strawberry antidumping case – filed by Florida growers against Mexican winter strawberry imports in late 2025 – further demonstrates the importance of seasonality in US strawberries. The case mirrors past tomato trade disputes but is more narrowly focused, applying only to seasonal imports and invoking a rare regional industry provision – factors that could influence how the investigation ultimately plays out.

Beyond the field, regulatory change is reshaping how strawberries are packed, marketed, and sold. California’s packaging laws SB 54 and SB 343 impose strict requirements on recyclability, plastic reduction, and producer responsibility, representing a major shift for strawberry packers and brands. PET clamshells – the most common form of US strawberry packaging – may remain compliant with design adjustments, while most fiber‑based alternatives currently fall short of statewide recyclability thresholds. Rising compliance costs and evolving rules will increasingly shape packaging and supply chain strategy.

On the demand side, consumer behavior remains polarized, with higher‑income households trading up and lower‑income consumers prioritizing affordability. Health‑driven preferences and rising GLP‑1 anti-obesity medication use are supporting demand for nutrient‑dense, minimally processed foods, helping sustain strawberries’ resilient performance despite slower growth relative to some other berries.