What if Ukraine joins the EU? An exploration of the impact on European food and agriculture

Ukraine’s accession to the EU will have significant implications for EU food and agriculture. Despite war-related damage, Ukraine will add a large production base, particularly in grains, oilseeds, and poultry, while remaining less competitive in higher value-added products. Increased supply from Ukraine could put pressure on prices in existing EU markets such as grains, sugar, and poultry, while lower feed costs would benefit EU livestock sectors. Traders and processors could also gain from greater availability of grains and oilseeds.

Ukraine’s entry will expand the EU population by roughly 40 million people – an increase of around 8%. However, in the near term, the limited purchasing power of Ukrainian households will constrain export opportunities. At the same time, increased investment flows into Ukrainian food and agriculture could create opportunities for suppliers of technology, farm inputs, and knowledge. From a strategic perspective, accession could also enhance EU food autonomy, although reducing reliance on imported soybean products would not be simple.

The policy implications are substantial, as Ukraine’s scale will likely make the current hectare-based CAP model unsustainable, thereby triggering reforms and transition measures. Overall, Ukraine’s accession to the EU will not be determined solely by its impact on food and agriculture; these effects will likely be weighed against broader considerations, including defense, critical minerals, and geopolitics.