On June 24, 2021 S&P Global issued a press release, announcing that they have changed their Outlook on the Dutch banking sector. The anticipated macroeconomic rebound and the ramp-up in vaccination, together with continuous government and European Central Bank support that S&P expects to wind down only gradually, reduce the downside risks for Dutch banks' operating environment in their view. They therefore revised the economic risks trend related to the domestic Dutch banking system to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’.
S&P considers that Rabobank is well positioned to benefit from the economic recovery given its dominant domestic franchise and its global food and agriculture sector positioning. They consider that the pressure on their view of the bank's capitalization and risk position have receded. Therefore, they revised the Outlook on Rabobank and its highly strategic subsidiary Rabobank New Zealand to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’. S&P expects Rabobank to continue exhibiting steady revenues despite persisting pressure on net interest income, and to maintain broadly stable efficiency, although possibly weighted by additional regulatory and IT development costs. They anticipate net income to recover swiftly from 2020's low on the back of much lower credit provisioning as a large amount has been taken last year to anticipate future defaults.
Further details on the Outlook, downside and upside scenarios for Rabobank can be found on page 3 of the S&P Global press release linked below.