Global Canola Opportunities in the Sustainable-Fuel Future: Is Australia Fit and Ready?

Under our base-case outlook, we expect:

- global canola trade volumes to decrease by more than 15% by 2024/25 and by just under 10% by 2029/30, versus 2020/21 levels, as Canada’s crush capacity expansion reduces export volumes;

- EU canola import demand, assuming average growing conditions in the union, to be moderate up to and including 2025/26 before increasing notably as palm oil is phased out towards their 2030 deadline;

- Australian canola area to increase over the coming decade, with production averaging just over 4m metric tons by the end of the decade and exports averaging 2.9m metric tons (up 23% from the five-year average of 2016/17 to 2020/21).

The 2021/22 global supply is severely reduced by the drought in Canada, and continued heavy EU demand is benefiting Australia and other exporters. But already, dramatic resupply is expected in 2022/23 as Canadian production recovers and as the EU imports significantly less following its own acreage expansion – even average seasonal conditions would represent the best global production season in at least four years.