Update

Brazilian coffee monthly update: November 2025

17 November 2025 18:08 RaboResearch

Guilherme Morya

Senior Analyst - Beverages

Read about exports, prices, weather, stocks, and crops in our latest update about the Brazilian coffee industry.

In October, Brazil exported 4.1m 60kg bags of coffee. Despite a 10% increase compared to the previous month, the volume was 20% lower than in the same period in 2024. Shipments have been gradually rising in recent months, however, total exports from January to October remain 20% below last year's level. This decline is mainly attributed to logistical bottlenecks at Brazilian ports (according to Cecafé) and the 50% US tariff on Brazilian coffee.

As expected, following the implementation of US tariffs on Brazilian coffee in August, exports to the US dropped significantly between August and October, totaling 984,000 bags a 52% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

However, on Friday November 14, the US government announced a list of agricultural products that will be exempt from “reciprocal tariffs,” including coffee. The reduction is retroactive, effective as of November 13, and aims to ease consumer costs. There is still uncertainty regarding how the measure will apply to Brazilian products. As of publication time, preliminary information suggests that the reduction only covers the 10% reciprocal tariff, while the punitive 40% tariff remains in place. Authorities from both countries continue negotiations, fueling expectations of a bilateral agreement. The move offers some relief for US industry. As previously noted, American roasters had stocks sufficient through November before making new purchases. However, if the additional 40% tariff is maintained, the industry is likely to face some impacts in the coming months.

The barter ratio worsened by 4% in November compared to the previous month, requiring 1.2 bags (60 kg) of green coffee to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer (blend 20-05-20). Even so, the ratio remains better than during the same period in 2024, when 1.4 bags were needed per metric ton. Fertilizer prices have remained relatively stable, while coffee prices have shown signs of weakening in recent days.

Coffee prices in Brazil continue to show strong volatility. In October, arabica and conilon prices rose by 2% and 4%, respectively. However, in November (through November 13), prices began to soften, with arabica down 2% and conilon down 5%. Recent news about potential tariff negotiations, the return of rains in Brazil's coffee-growing regions, and expectations of improved global supply in 2026 have weighed on prices. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to persist due to weather risks (particularly in Brazil and Vietnam), geopolitical uncertainties, and limited coffee stocks especially regarding physical arabica availability in the coming months.

October brought irregular and below-average rainfall, particularly in key arabica-growing regions. Toward the end of the month and into early November, rains became more consistent, triggering new flowering and supporting fruit set. Mild temperatures and steady rainfall will be crucial for crop development in the coming weeks.

Guilherme Morya

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