Global poultry quarterly Q3 2025: Geopolitics and bird flu to shape the 2025/26 poultry outlook

Global poultry markets experienced a relatively bullish first half of 2025. However, increasing market uncertainty has emerged following the announcement (and postponement) of US import tariffs, outbreaks of bird flu in the US, the EU, and Brazil, and now the Israel-Iran war, with the risk of further escalation in a key region for global poultry markets. These developments could have a big potential impact on global trade and market dynamics. They will remain dominant themes for the global poultry market outlook in 2H 2025.

Poultry market fundamentals worldwide remain strong, with price support from high beef and egg prices and stable feed prices. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions are weighing on the global economy, which prompted the IMF to downgrade its global GDP growth forecast by 0.5%, and oil prices have started to rise since the Israel-Iran war. This uncertain economic outlook, combined with avian flu outbreaks, is negatively impacting markets. Therefore, we have lowered our global production forecast for 2025 from 2.5% to 3% growth to 2% to 2.5% growth, and this will likely be reduced further if the Israel-Iran war continues to escalate. While we still expect global markets to stay strong, regional differences are possible, driven by geopolitical developments, their economic impact, and the evolving bird flu situation.

After the US imposed – and postponed – significant import tariffs in April, the possibility of a trade war is still on the table. If trade deals are reached, the US poultry sector could gain greater market access, potentially at the expense of local producers or competing exporters. Conversely, in the event of an ongoing trade war, US poultry producers would likely see restricted access, with shifts in trade favoring other exporters like Brazil, Thailand, Russia, and the EU. Both scenarios would have economic repercussions. The trade war scenario in particular could lead to price inflation, with an outsized impact on economies with the highest imposed tariffs (especially in Asia and Africa), and indirect consequences for poultry markets.

Global poultry trade in 2025 has been strong so far, reaching historic highs in Q1. However, the wave of bird flu outbreaks, plus the potential impact of tariffs and other geopolitical developments, including the impact of the Israel-Iran war, will likely shake up trade dynamics. The Brazilian bird flu outbreak has already had a big impact on global trade – with 40% of Brazilian exports blocked by key importers. Hatching egg trade is also heavily impacted following the European, Brazilian, US, and previous New Zealand outbreaks. Supply is expected to stay tight in the coming months, posing a challenge for countries that depend on imported hatching eggs, especially in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.