Global poultry quarterly Q4 2025: Strong outlook on the back of balanced supply and ongoing robust market growth

The global poultry market outlook is expected to remain strong for the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026. We are maintaining our growth forecast for global poultry markets at 2.5% for 2025, which is roughly in line with 2024 market growth (2.6%). Poultry remains an affordable option for consumers, especially at a time when beef and eggs are expensive and pork prices have increased. Lower feed prices are currently flowing through the value chain in many markets, supporting industry profitability. Most markets in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Americas are currently performing well.

Poultry supply growth, especially in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, is currently slow due to tight parent stock supply. This situation is not expected to significantly improve until at least early 2026. The fastest supply growth is currently predominantly seen in Asia. The Chinese chicken industry is currently one of the fastest-growing poultry industries worldwide, with 7% growth in 1H, benefiting from rising demand and increased restrictions on imports. Growth in Turkey (5%), the Philippines (4.5%), and Vietnam (4%) is also high. In some countries, growth has been too optimistic, leading to oversupply. Examples include Indonesia, where a parent stock culling program should help to rebalance markets, and China, where a government-organized sow-reduction program should help to rebalance the Chinese meat market.

Global trade continued to grow in the first half of the year, despite a significant drop in Brazilian exports in May 2025 due to many avian influenza-related restrictions on Brazil’s poultry exports between May and July. Global trade tensions, including US reciprocal tariffs and the subsequent trade agreement, have not yet led to increased US exports, but this could change in the near future, as trade access for chicken is a priority in negotiations.

Thailand, Russia, Ukraine, China, and Turkey have increased exports this year, while Brazil, the EU, and the US have seen declines. However, this is expected to change as Brazil returns to the market, and the US may benefit from increased market access. Other geopolitical issues, like potential further restrictions on Russian indirect trade, might also indirectly impact global poultry markets, although the prime focus will be on energy and other non-food products.

Avian influenza remains a major concern for the industry, and optimal biosecurity continues to be a key priority, especially in Northern Hemisphere countries where risks are expected to rise in the coming winter season. Increasingly, more countries have introduced vaccination as a tool to reduce risks (as seen recently in South Africa). New outbreaks are likely and will create additional volatility in already tight global market conditions.